1. Field of the Invention
The invention relates to a method and system for forecasting bank traffic and teller utilization. The invention also relates to a method and system for scheduling work assignments for bank personnel based on the forecast. More specifically, the invention relates to such methods and systems for continuously gathering bank traffic data and teller occupation statistics for such forecasts and schedules.
2. Description of Prior Art
Information concerning levels of traffic flow in the bank is very important to the bank management as they attempt to arrive at a satisfactory compromise between cost of staff and service to the customer. The most obvious bank area in which this pertains is the teller station. Typically, especially during busy hours, such as lunch hours, and during busy days, such as pay days, customers must wait in a queue before being served by a teller.
Increasing the number of tellers will, of course, reduce the waiting time for the customers, but it does so only at a financial cost in the provision of extra teller stations and the payment of increased staff--so that the solution has only a limited applicability. For example, the number of stations may be fixed due to space limitations, and the number of tellers which can be hired may be limited due to budgetary limitations.
Even when there are a large number of tellers, for financial reasons, they must be utilized efficiently. Waiting for customers who are not there at teller stations does not constitute such efficient use so that, typically, tellers in banks are assigned "desk" chores as compared to station chores. If the philosophy of banks were merely to send tellers to the stations when customers appear, the teller's desk work would be subject to many interruptions--which would lead to reduced efficiency of the desk work.
Maximum efficiency, coupled with maximum customer service, is best accomplished by scheduling desk times and station times for each teller based on accurate prediction of levels of traffic at the bank during different hours of the day. This will permit the tellers to plan their desk work for the most efficient performance thereof, while ensuring, at most, acceptably short waits for the customers.
In order to generate such predictions, it is necessary to gather, not only sufficient, but also relevant and accurate data. It is necessary not only to gather such data, but also to subject it to meaningful and appropriate analysis.
Although the level of traffic in a banking environment varies from day to day, and from hour to hour in each day, the variation is not erratic and unpredictable, but follows patterns which can be determined if sufficient and accurate data can be gathered. However, the patterns themselves may be subject to variation, so that the gathering of data cannot be a single effort project--but must be carried on on a continuous basis.
In addition, the data cannot be of a generalized nature, i.e., "Friday afternoons are busy", but must be of a specific and accurate nature indicating, for example, both the rate of customer arrivals and the time at which to expect the specific arrival rates as well as rate changes and times of such changes.
Because of the difficulty and expense of gathering such data, and because of the lack of appropriate analytical tools, the forecasting of traffic in banks, and appropriate scheduling of bank personnel based on such forecasts, is very rare to the possible detriment of the banks.
Forecasting can also be useful for a different purpose. With the advent of ATM's (Automatic Teller Machines, i.e., machines which perform all or some of the functions of a teller in the teller-customer relationship), it would be possible to provide faster service at a lesser cost if the customers would be willing to use these machines. As ATM's are expensive, it would not be economically sound to purchase machines if they are not going to be used. However, if they are used, they can bring improvements in both costs and service--so that there is an incentive to introduce them. Once again, a forecasting method and system would be useful to predict the extent of the use of such ATM's for installation planning.
The forecasting method and system should also be useful to measure the customer waiting tolerance, i.e., the amount of time a customer will wait before he leaves the bank without being served. This concept can also be used in the placement of ATM's in the banks.
In order to be useful in a banking environment, the method and system must be relatively inexpensive, accurate and unobtrusive.